RFS Proposal Marks a First for EPA Under Trump’s Sweeping Deregulatory Order

In what appears to be a first for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the agency’s recently proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) rule for 2026–2027 has officially triggered President Trump’s new “10-for-1” executive order—Executive Order 14192. That order requires agencies to eliminate at least 10 existing rules or guidance documents for every new one they issue.

Unlike other recent EPA actions that merely roll back existing Biden-era rules and claim regulatory cost savings, this RFS proposal—known as “Set 2”—comes with a hefty price tag: EPA estimates $12.4 billion in net societal costs, including $6.5 billion in annual net costs (in 2022 dollars at a 3% discount rate). Because the rule represents a net cost rather than a net savings, it falls squarely within the scope of EO 14192’s offset requirements.

The rule aims to increase biodiesel blending while holding corn ethanol levels steady and favoring domestic over imported biofuels. While still in the proposal phase, it may represent the most significant regulatory action yet under the Trump EPA—both in terms of economic impact and implications for agency rulemaking strategy.

The 10-for-1 framework builds on the original 2-for-1 order from Trump’s first term, which his administration claimed resulted in the repeal of 5.5 rules for every new significant rule introduced. This new order ups the ante, requiring not only a tenfold rule repeal ratio, but also that the total incremental cost of all new regulations be significantly less than zero—a requirement enforced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

So far, many Trump-era regulatory actions—particularly those from DOE and DOT—have been designed to meet the numeric targets of EO 14192 without significantly increasing net costs. But EPA’s RFS rule breaks new ground by acknowledging it will require regulatory offsets, making it a likely test case for how the agency navigates this deregulatory framework while still issuing rules mandated by statute.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has committed to at least 31 deregulatory actions, including scaling back power plant emissions standards, relaxing air toxics limits, and scrapping PM2.5 rules. According to a recent report from the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the Trump administration’s deregulatory push could generate nearly $680 billion in cost savings—though notably, that estimate is focused on costs alone, not net societal benefits.

As regulatory agencies race to finalize rules before the end of fiscal year 2025, EPA’s RFS proposal could become a key indicator of how EO 14192 is implemented in practice—and how agencies balance statutory obligations with aggressive deregulatory mandates.

Final Thoughts:With the RFS rule poised to become the first EPA action that must meet the 10-for-1 threshold, we may soon see whether the Trump administration’s ambitious cost-cutting goals can coexist with the legal and policy demands of environmental rulemaking.